Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-886.61

Realised

$-32.37

Win rate

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
90 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026
$0.00
$-31.10
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 1PM ET
54 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026
$0.00
$-3.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 24, 8PM ET
21 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$0.00
$-4.80
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - July 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
21 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-1.90
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 20?
21 shares @ 37.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-7.78
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
18 shares @ 34.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-6.10
YES
Will FC Thun win on 2026-07-21?
16 shares @ 35.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.70
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
16 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9PM ET
16 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026
$0.00
$-1.09
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
15 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$0.00
$-7.40

Recent activity

TRADESELLHyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?$1.61Aug 10, 03:05 UTC
TRADESELLAligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?$3.87Aug 10, 03:05 UTC
TRADESELLWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$4.02Aug 10, 03:04 UTC
TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$4.33Aug 10, 03:04 UTC
TRADESELLMagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch?$5.13Aug 10, 03:03 UTC
TRADESELLBetmoar FDV above $50M one day after launch?$17.93Aug 10, 03:03 UTC
REDEEMGRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?$6.00Jul 31, 22:01 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.15Jul 28, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$14.93Jul 27, 02:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.36Jul 27, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$10.00Jul 26, 14:45 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$9.99Jul 26, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$9.17Jul 26, 14:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$7.44Jul 26, 14:32 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$9.78Jul 26, 14:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$6.47Jul 26, 14:25 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$3.76Jul 26, 14:25 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$6.42Jul 26, 14:25 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$9.55Jul 26, 14:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$10.20Jul 26, 14:25 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity61 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry63 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $5.91
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 26, 12:28 UTC
Last active: Aug 10, 03:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:35:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data