Wallet profile

Misguided-Substance

0x9f41b736a8d04891178df2495921a5a3e88b8f27

activity 64/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

64/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$11.0K

Total PnL

$-321.9K

Realised

$-7.5K

Win rate

24%

85 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$66.4K

Trades

2

Buy share

61%

Window

May 30, 15:40 UTC → Jul 5, 23:53 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

24% win rate over 85 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

50 live trades, 8 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

85 closed markets, 24% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

61%

Sample

limited

8 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?

$15.5K · 23% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?23% of recorded volume$15.5KWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?21% of recorded volume$13.8KMexico vs. England: Team to Advance20% of recorded volume$13.4K

Profile dimensions

Activity73 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
50
Avg trade size
$16.90
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 16, 05:50 UTC
Last active
Jul 16, 12:06 UTC
Win rate sample
85 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 13:35:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data