Carefree-Amendment
0x9f5b75ffd6ee1577e2cda68f48ba7dfe14923bce
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$1.00
Total PnL
$-46.45
Realised
$1.78
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$0.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 26?
5315 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-5.32
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 13?
1111 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 6?
1106 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.64
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 12?
1101 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.45
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 19?
1088 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.42
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 30?
1080 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.24
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31?
1074 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.58
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 27?
1074 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.22
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22?
1074 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.58
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 7?$21.04Aug 7, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 7?$21.00Aug 6, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$3.34Aug 1, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.19Jul 31, 18:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 30?$17.23Jul 30, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 30?$17.20Jul 29, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?$17.05Jul 22, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?$17.00Jul 21, 03:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?$5.21Jul 20, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?$5.20Jul 14, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$3.32Jul 9, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.19Jul 3, 08:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.24Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15?$2.12Jun 15, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 6?$2.11Jun 6, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.22Jun 2, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 31?$1.1KJun 1, 03:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.35May 31, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 31?$1.1KMay 30, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30?$1.1KMay 30, 18:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $378.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 6, 11:40 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 16:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.