Delightful-Forecast
0x9fadd08a4c1d98000f661396ce622e0025affcc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
128
Open notional
$167.54
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-55.04
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 128- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 21?
42 shares @ 89.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$31.71
$-5.67
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
30 shares @ 94.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.55
$-1.65
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 21?
110 shares @ 7.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$26.40
$18.70
- YES
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 79.3¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.00
$-10.70
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 21?
24 shares @ 70.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$18.23
$1.44
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 21?
18 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$17.75
$0.11
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
20 shares @ 83.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$15.90
$-0.70
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 83.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.15
$-1.15
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
10 shares @ 42.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.85
$-1.35
- YES
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
750 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 21?$6.52Jul 21, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 21?$0.35Jul 21, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 21?$0.83Jul 21, 23:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 21?$37.59Jul 21, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 20?$83.62Jul 21, 08:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 20?$74.46Jul 21, 08:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 20?$248.69Jul 21, 08:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 20?$138.26Jul 21, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 20?$274.69Jul 21, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 20?$0.04Jul 21, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 20?$0.95Jul 21, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 21?$17.04Jul 21, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 21?$17.66Jul 21, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 20?$89.96Jul 21, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 20?$27.74Jul 21, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 20?$101.66Jul 21, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 20?$40.95Jul 21, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 20?$46.70Jul 21, 00:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $33.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 22:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.