Mortified-Ginseng
0x9fb7149b6d30c71b0b218cca504373a6a6683297
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$48.02
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$88.35
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?
11 shares @ 83.6¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.59
$-0.33
- YES
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
18 shares @ 61.8¢·now 47.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.53
$-2.52
- YES
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
14 shares @ 27.4¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$4.42
$0.45
- NO
Greek snap election scheduled in 2026?
6 shares @ 52.4¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.18
$0.18
- YES
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
9 shares @ 33.3¢·now 34.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.11
$0.11
- YES
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?
13 shares @ 31.9¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.01
$-0.99
- YES
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 33.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.60
$-0.70
- YES
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
25 shares @ 12.4¢·now 10.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.50
$-0.60
- YES
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 21.5¢·now 23.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.29
$0.19
- YES
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
5 shares @ 40.5¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$1.04Jul 23, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.02Jul 23, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$1.03Jul 23, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYGreek snap election scheduled in 2026?$1.02Jul 23, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.05Jul 23, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$6.65Jul 23, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.03Jul 23, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$2.07Jul 23, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$1.04Jul 23, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$1.04Jul 23, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill one person dissent the July Fed decision?$1.04Jul 23, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$1.10Jul 22, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.03Jul 22, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Jul 22, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1.04Jul 22, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 22, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$1.03Jul 22, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYGreek snap election scheduled in 2026?$1.02Jul 22, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.00Jul 21, 17:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 15:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.