0x9fc36772491ded047002ae4db2f442b9bae31f1f
0x9fc36772491ded047002ae4db2f442b9bae31f1f
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$480.94
Realised
$1.1K
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
1244 shares @ 48.2¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$628.30
$28.30
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1843 shares @ 29.3¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$562.09
$22.09
- YES
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
448 shares @ 4.9¢·now 9.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$40.33
$18.33
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
273 shares @ 11.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.64
$-1.36
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
352 shares @ 12.4¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.68
$-25.18
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
438 shares @ 3.4¢·now 2.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.83
$-3.17
- YES
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?
294 shares @ 3.4¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.18
$1.18
- YES
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3333 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-386.99
- YES
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?
903 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$10.40Jul 23, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$24.00Jul 22, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$2.08Jul 21, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$5.20Jul 21, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$15.60Jul 21, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$93.60Jul 20, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$208.00Jul 20, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$26.00Jul 20, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?$10.40Jul 20, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$15.60Jul 20, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$260.00Jul 19, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$624.00Jul 19, 23:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$84.00Jul 19, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$133.12Jul 19, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$10.86Jul 19, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$2.16Jul 19, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$25.91Jul 19, 20:11 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$7.21Jul 19, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$21.73Jul 19, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$86.92Jul 19, 00:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $66.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 22:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 07:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.