Unruly-Thunderbolt
0x9fe8575b05313c440340e3ae21af1e0e300c2c91
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-11.1K
Realised
$-106.25
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5500 shares @ 25.7¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$-122.48
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
2500 shares @ 17.6¢·now 21.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$525.00
$85.00
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
1000 shares @ 19.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$115.00
$-75.00
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
265 shares @ 16.2¢·now 4.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.57
$-30.43
- YES
Iran leadership change by July 31?
1000 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.50
$-32.50
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
252098 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-723.52
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
100000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
12000 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-562.93
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
10517 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-443.67
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
10000 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-190.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$2.97Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$164.26Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$1.68Jul 25, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$1.31Jul 25, 02:26 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$1.26Jul 25, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$2.79Jul 25, 02:19 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$1.35Jul 25, 02:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$100.00Jul 25, 02:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$10.50Jul 25, 02:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$81.28Jul 25, 02:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$118.13Jul 20, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$0.48Jul 20, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$143.15Jul 20, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$41.39Jul 20, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$396.85Jul 20, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$540.00Jul 20, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$309.55Jul 20, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$0.97Jul 20, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$34.49Jul 20, 13:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $103.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.