Outstanding-Popsicle
0xa08b7ca7be8f818df0e343b20add343be07f77b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
176
Open notional
$2.80
Total PnL
$-568.25
Realised
$150.44
Win rate
92%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 176- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.08
$-0.57
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.72
$-0.38
- YES
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025?
3406 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-72.90
- YES
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025?
1926 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-51.14
- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1910 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.26
- YES
Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?
1800 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-13.32
- YES
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1410 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-16.32
- YES
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?
1354 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-44.60
- YES
Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?
1130 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-12.78
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.00Jun 20, 08:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.94Jun 12, 09:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $6.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.