Kindhearted-Dinosaur
0xa0bb2cf510964a44301f8547ffc824ed19ba2a16
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$959.37
Total PnL
$-367.39
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
600 shares @ 26.9¢·now 21.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$127.25
$-34.17
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
600 shares @ 20.6¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$120.34
$-3.40
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
200 shares @ 53.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$111.00
$5.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
840 shares @ 17.8¢·now 13.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$109.24
$-40.76
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
200 shares @ 16.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.00
$18.00
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
150 shares @ 35.9¢·now 30.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$45.00
$-8.91
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
200 shares @ 26.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
400 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.00
$-6.00
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
300 shares @ 12.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
531 shares @ 10.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$33.48
$-19.90
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 23, 07:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$14.00Jul 19, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$32.00Jul 19, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?$14.00Jul 19, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?$19.33Jul 19, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by December 31?$33.93Jul 19, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$17.92Jul 19, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?$34.00Jul 19, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$22.00Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$22.00Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $29.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 17:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.