Coarse-Adaptation
0xa0ca2cb7248f54e1ff8a077ab7ae7cf3faa53ca6
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-204.31
Realised
$-0.53
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 65°F or below on April 1?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
2105 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
1133 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?
619 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April?
371 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5?
365 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 31?
195 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.98
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?
182 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?
165 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?$2.00Apr 21, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?$2.94Apr 21, 08:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$3.05Apr 21, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$0.75Apr 21, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$2.00Apr 21, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 21?$2.00Apr 20, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?$2.00Apr 20, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $130 in April?$1.00Apr 20, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $110 in April?$2.00Apr 20, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?$2.00Apr 20, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?$2.00Apr 20, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,600 in April?$2.00Apr 20, 18:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$4.29Apr 20, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$9.72Apr 20, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$5.00Apr 20, 17:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 3, 12:07 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 08:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.