Cheerful-Ladybug
0xa136a7eca4520822e06e32498a5a60bd9c322965
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$626.34
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-29.76
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
2520 shares @ 57.2¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$340.17
$-1.1K
- YES
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
288 shares @ 61.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$286.17
$110.64
- YES
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 4?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$8.90Jul 24, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$17.80Jul 24, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$44.50Jul 24, 09:03 UTC
- REWARD$3.64Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 23, 17:19 UTC
- REWARD$2.77Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$50.10Jul 22, 01:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$362.13Jul 21, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$300.66Jul 21, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$209.79Jul 21, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$48.90Jul 21, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$86.90Jul 21, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$355.99Jul 21, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$229.22Jul 21, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$0.98Jul 17, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$2.56Jun 17, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$1.04Jun 17, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$3.71Jun 17, 10:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$19.94Jun 12, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$6.06Jun 12, 05:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $70.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 18:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 09:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.