CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Probability
17¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.5pp
24h Vol
$173.91
Liquidity
$3.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 17¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $3.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 22¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5943.1h
Price movement
-6.0pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.5pp at 00:00 (to 16¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 05:00 · -8.5pp → 17¢
- 02:00 · -9.5pp → 17¢
- 00:00 · -9.5pp → 16¢
- 21:00 · -8.0pp → 17¢
- 12:00 · -8.0pp → 21¢
- 11:00 · -8.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 21¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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