Insecure-Fire
0xa1726b44f76cf3b7ffd748cae41d8966300bb716
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$13.7K
Total PnL
$-5.0K
Realised
$-1.7K
Win rate
53%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
3930 shares @ 74.3¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.4K
$517.48
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
4704 shares @ 52.6¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.6K
$136.17
- NO
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?
1582 shares @ 76.4¢·now 92.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$252.46
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
1195 shares @ 87.8¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$7.75
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
2116 shares @ 72.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.0K
$-534.72
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
4585 shares @ 34.2¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$940.00
$-629.69
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
1133 shares @ 87.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$906.54
$-79.32
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3134 shares @ 68.9¢·now 14.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$463.78
$-1.7K
- NO
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season?
432 shares @ 80.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$365.04
$19.44
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
495 shares @ 32.2¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$304.39
$144.81
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.57Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.58Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.58Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.34Jul 16, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?$174.15Jul 15, 02:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.57Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.56Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.56Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.56Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.55Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $149.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.