Wary-Ribbon
0xa2246539d2bdd6bb1d00b1b34b634e8df13102fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$28.00
Total PnL
$-3.50
Realised
$7.50
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
13 shares @ 29.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.67
$2.83
- NO
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 87.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.96
$0.73
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
6 shares @ 87.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.61
$0.39
- NO
Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.28
$0.17
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.40
$0.50
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 41.9¢·now 41.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.09
$-0.00
- YES
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
39 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.54
- YES
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Senegal to score first vs. France?
7 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$2.10Jul 31, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$4.10Jul 31, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$2.90Jul 31, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$11.34Jul 27, 06:42 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$15.99Jul 26, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.45Jul 22, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1.52Jul 22, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$2.32Jul 22, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$5.23Jul 22, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$5.22Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$3.68Jul 20, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$2.64Jul 20, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$2.41Jul 17, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.20Jul 15, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.40Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$5.28Jul 14, 06:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.01Jul 10, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$2.50Jul 10, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Colombia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$3.53Jul 7, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$1.67Jul 7, 18:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 21:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.