0xa2fcb3047f2117434782f04b101f7a8c8315e3ec
0xa2fcb3047f2117434782f04b101f7a8c8315e3ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$54.91
Total PnL
$1.31
Realised
$0.82
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
22 shares @ 70.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$15.38
$-0.43
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat?
9 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.91
$0.11
- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
98 shares @ 4.2¢·now 5.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.84
$0.73
- NO
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
5 shares @ 72.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$4.52
$1.22
- NO
Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
4 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$3.55
$0.43
- YES
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
4 shares @ 62.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$3.51
$1.24
- NO
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$3.41
$2.25
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the IL-01 House seat?
4 shares @ 93.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.35
$0.05
- NO
Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$2.20
$0.02
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat?
2 shares @ 92.9¢·now 94.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.75
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$0.01Jul 14, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$0.01Jul 14, 17:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$0.06Jul 14, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$0.04Jul 10, 10:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$0.01Jul 3, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$0.06Jun 28, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$1.42Jun 25, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?$0.83Jun 25, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?$0.11Jun 25, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.10Jun 23, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.10Jun 23, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.10Jun 23, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.84Jun 23, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$0.03Jun 22, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$0.06Jun 22, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$0.10Jun 22, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$0.10Jun 22, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$0.04Jun 22, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$0.10Jun 22, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?$0.10Jun 22, 16:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 18:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 17:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.