Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+6.0pp
24h Vol
$6.5K
Liquidity
$30.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2751.8h
- 08:12SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 6.0pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 08:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2752h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 41¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 41¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 39¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 41¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 41¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 40¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 40¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 40¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).