Playful-Poppy
0xa3369d14e524788e39cdccc7b00aa043efc70268
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-163.94
Realised
$-26.88
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals
308 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-20.31
- NO
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-15.38
- YES
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?
67 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?
64 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
63 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
57 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-36.37
- NO
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score
47 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals
22 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$9.32Jul 12, 17:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$60.61Jul 12, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$9.32Jul 11, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYElliot Anderson: 1+ goals$21.26Jul 11, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYErling Haaland: 1+ goals$10.27Jul 11, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score$18.56Jul 11, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$15.56Jul 11, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$46.73Jul 11, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$112.51Jul 7, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$20.77Jul 4, 12:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$15.38Jul 4, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$10.10Jul 3, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$12.59Jul 2, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$20.38Jul 2, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$15.39Jul 1, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$30.48Jul 1, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?$76.92Jun 28, 01:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?$1.38Jun 28, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?$25.49Jun 28, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?$30.55Jun 28, 00:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $25.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 22:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 17:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.