Probable-Hypothesis
0xa3543673b381e00303b5c15d6cd0d9455d1a22eb
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-497.50
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
400 shares @ 77.5¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$230.00
$-80.00
- NO
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026?
213 shares @ 70.4¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$211.07
$61.07
- NO
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?
193 shares @ 65.8¢·now 87.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$169.23
$42.28
- NO
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?
157 shares @ 82.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$149.76
$19.76
- NO
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?
124 shares @ 80.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$121.99
$21.99
- NO
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?
100 shares @ 64.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$72.00
$8.00
- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
63 shares @ 79.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$62.94
$12.94
- NO
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?
58 shares @ 52.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$56.46
$26.46
- YES
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027?
100 shares @ 56.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$55.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Hylo launch a token by June 30, 2026?
57 shares @ 88.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$54.80
$4.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$72.92Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$35.55Jun 12, 06:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $2B one day after launch?$42.50May 28, 01:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $30.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.