Elaborate-Hatchet
0xa42940d612c9b2e02d3cd35a4c3f17062782368a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$13.5K
Total PnL
$673.41
Realised
$1.7K
Win rate
91%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
1511 shares @ 73.6¢·now 79.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.2K
$89.08
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1400 shares @ 82.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$11.17
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
1205 shares @ 86.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.1K
$80.55
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
1200 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.0K
$42.00
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
1200 shares @ 75.6¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$930.00
$22.50
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1252 shares @ 53.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$807.54
$138.08
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
800 shares @ 89.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$732.00
$16.00
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 68.6¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$684.99
$-1.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
1517 shares @ 41.2¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$660.03
$35.46
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
600 shares @ 90.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$555.06
$10.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$2.38Aug 9, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$3.34Aug 9, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$23.32Aug 9, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$333.06Aug 9, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$146.96Aug 9, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$368.00Aug 9, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by December 31?$312.00Aug 9, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$178.19Aug 9, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$7.81Aug 9, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$348.00Aug 9, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$170.00Aug 9, 04:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$168.00Aug 9, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Helaena Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?$63.76Aug 9, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Helaena Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?$11.29Aug 9, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Helaena Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?$3.95Aug 9, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$328.00Aug 9, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$352.00Aug 9, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$356.00Aug 9, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$332.00Aug 9, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$336.00Aug 9, 00:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $181.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 16:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 09:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.