Thin-Membrane
0xa510249c44a60591cbe1747eb0fd97267d431f80
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$63.00
Total PnL
$-6.2K
Realised
$7.7K
Win rate
84%
106 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
125999 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.00
$-128.65
- YES
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
446811 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-635.37
- YES
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
205368 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-717.97
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
164778 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-705.08
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26?
95136 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-140.71
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25?
61749 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-61.75
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 10?
56008 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2025$0.00
$-173.23
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 21?
53378 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-170.06
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25?
46540 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-93.59
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?
44408 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2025$0.00
$-122.21
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$41.09May 18, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$132.00May 17, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$48.00May 17, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$130.77May 17, 21:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$0.66May 17, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$0.50May 17, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$11.87May 17, 18:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$6.55May 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$8.32May 17, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$15.82May 17, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$0.10May 17, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$12.43May 17, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$0.37May 17, 10:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$3.20May 17, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$21.25May 17, 07:47 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$5.19May 17, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.71May 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?$4.21May 16, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?$0.10May 16, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?$0.00May 16, 22:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 20:23 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 106 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".