Silver-Epauliere
0xa5173017f87a1c59f4613f4db506980b689933ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
121
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$675.26
Win rate
100%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 121- YES
Will Erick Lindgren win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?
3400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.80
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
2500 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-70.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
1300 shares @ 13.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-179.00
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
1250 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-325.00
- YES
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?
1000 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-05?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Gobble" or "Waddle" 10+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
1000 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-19.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$100.00Jun 24, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$100.45Jun 24, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$39.08Jun 23, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$50.92Jun 23, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYPanama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half$13.96Jun 23, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$85.77Jun 23, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYPanama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5$89.06Jun 23, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYPanama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Croatia leading at halftime?$14.40Jun 23, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5$171.53Jun 23, 19:24 UTC
- REDEEMJordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score$100.00Jun 23, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYJordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score$47.00Jun 23, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score$5.01Jun 22, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score$12.76Jun 22, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score$4.23Jun 22, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMadrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud$0.15Apr 27, 10:17 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.10Apr 27, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMMelbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5$200.00Apr 26, 12:00 UTC
- TRADESELLMadrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally$75.00Apr 26, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLMadrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally$30.00Apr 26, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYMadrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally$32.93Apr 26, 11:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $54.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 04:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 04:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.