0xa5cb092fc900f430752852eb428ff348556d6cb5
0xa5cb092fc900f430752852eb428ff348556d6cb5
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$572.20
Total PnL
$36.48
Realised
$-4.70
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- YES
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?
83 shares @ 44.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$69.78
$33.39
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
58 shares @ 58.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$48.69
$15.23
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
45 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$45.11
$0.49
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
43 shares @ 94.4¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$42.70
$1.72
- NO
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026?
31 shares @ 75.8¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$26.87
$3.58
- NO
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?
28 shares @ 79.1¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.36
$2.83
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
31 shares @ 77.4¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$24.23
$0.02
- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
19 shares @ 84.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.14
$1.23
- NO
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$16.99
$0.00
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
21 shares @ 76.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.19
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed Salah join Al-Nassr?$5.64Jul 26, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$1.00Jul 26, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?$5.14Jul 26, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by December 31 2027?$2.04Jul 26, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?$1.01Jul 26, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?$3.54Jul 26, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Clavicular visit Thailand in 2026?$0.02Jul 26, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$1.00Jul 26, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMLa Velada del Año 6: Samy Rivers vs RoRo$2.70Jul 26, 01:41 UTC
- REDEEMLa Velada del Año 6: Lit Killah vs Kidd Keo$0.00Jul 26, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?$0.64Jul 26, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?$2.56Jul 26, 01:06 UTC
- REDEEMLa Velada del Año 6: La Parce vs Fabiana Sevillano$2.94Jul 26, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMLa Velada del Año 6: Marta Díaz vs. Tatiana Käer$4.49Jul 26, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLLa Velada del Año 6: Samy Rivers vs RoRo$0.69Jul 25, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYLa Velada del Año 6: Samy Rivers vs RoRo$1.03Jul 25, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYLa Velada del Año 6: Samy Rivers vs RoRo$1.03Jul 25, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYLa Velada del Año 6: Lit Killah vs Kidd Keo$0.63Jul 25, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$0.06Jul 25, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$4.10Jul 25, 23:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 12:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 05:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.