Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 20¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1019.4h
- 12:38SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-3.5pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Biggest hourly move: -30.5pp at May 15, 08:00 UTC (to 24¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 12:00 · -3.5pp → 20¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -30.5pp → 24¢
- May 15, 07:00 UTC · -28.0pp → 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
On April 27, 2026, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on X that President Donald J. Trump endorsed renaming Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE.” You can read more about that here: https://x.com/presssec/status/2048746343275938173?s=46. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that changes the name of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE” or to any name that is officially abbreviated as “NICE” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any executive action or legislation that renames Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE” or to any name that is officially abbreviated as “NICE” will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect or if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:38:06 GMT, YES is priced at 20% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $136.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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