Mysterious-Waterspout
0xa5f365d5f42eab91b23e3c07a93190821c82d2c0
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$31.72
Total PnL
$-60.04
Realised
$2.34
Win rate
100%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 20?
20 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$20.38
$0.05
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
6 shares @ 98.3¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.01
$0.01
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
5 shares @ 95.4¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.33
$0.20
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 11?
1145 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.58
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 23?
1128 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.51
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on February 12?
1127 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-6.76
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 25?
1126 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 17?
1121 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.73
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 21?
1118 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.49
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 28?
1115 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 20?$20.33Aug 20, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 12?$20.71Aug 12, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 12?$20.65Aug 11, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 7?$13.49Aug 7, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 7?$13.46Aug 6, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 31?$16.76Jul 31, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 31?$16.74Jul 30, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 25?$12.59Jul 25, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 25?$12.55Jul 24, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 13?$20.57Jul 13, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 13?$20.48Jul 13, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 8?$21.50Jul 8, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 8?$21.44Jul 7, 10:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?$13.70Jul 2, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?$13.69Jul 1, 07:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?$5.23Jul 1, 06:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?$6.49Jun 30, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?$6.48Jun 25, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?$5.22Jun 20, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $285?$0.01Jun 12, 03:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $7.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 21, 02:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 03:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.