Stiff-Placement
0xa61a355e4934aaaf9aa77fc0971f8f9425ab4581
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$740.28
Total PnL
$4.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
125 shares @ 97.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$124.69
$2.44
- NO
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
122 shares @ 99.0¢·now 95.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$116.81
$-3.96
- NO
Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$3.50 in July?
104 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$103.38
$0.10
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
100 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.50
$2.50
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
60 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$59.94
$0.55
- NO
Will 280 to 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
56 shares @ 99.0¢·now 97.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$54.38
$-1.06
- NO
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
50 shares @ 94.9¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$49.60
$2.15
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?
42 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$42.22
$0.19
- YES
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
40 shares @ 94.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.99
$-0.60
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
30 shares @ 88.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$28.35
$1.71
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of July 20 2026?$50.00Jul 24, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 280 to 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$55.47Jul 24, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$120.84Jul 24, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost ≥$3.50 in July?$103.29Jul 24, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$90.36Jul 24, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$47.45Jul 24, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$3.42Jul 24, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of July 20 2026?$49.86Jul 24, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?$42.05Jul 24, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$37.68Jul 24, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$27.90Jul 24, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $59.39Jul 24, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$26.76Jul 24, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?$208.80Jul 4, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$200.00Jul 1, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?$103.00Jun 30, 22:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18?$153.24Jun 18, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$122.25Jun 18, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$197.60Jun 18, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?$176.85Jun 18, 08:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $85.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 02:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 23:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.