Clumsy-Supply
0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$171.3K
Total PnL
$14.1K
Realised
$28.3K
Win rate
87%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
34969 shares @ 80.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$30.6K
$2.4K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
29736 shares @ 88.8¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$22.0K
$-4.4K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
111333 shares @ 30.9¢·now 19.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$22.0K
$-12.4K
- YES
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2033591 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$17.3K
$1.0K
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
14916 shares @ 83.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.1K
$560.29
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
20491 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.3K
$-102.45
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10000 shares @ 83.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.6K
$250.02
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
9500 shares @ 80.2¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.4K
$740.01
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
6500 shares @ 87.5¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.5K
$-230.00
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
6068 shares @ 84.4¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.0K
$-146.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$0.01Jul 25, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.03Jul 25, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$1.53Jul 25, 07:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.00Jul 25, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.02Jul 25, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.10Jul 25, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.08Jul 25, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$1.91Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$0.01Jul 25, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.10Jul 25, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.12Jul 25, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.12Jul 25, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.51Jul 25, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.10Jul 25, 06:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.08Jul 25, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.01Jul 25, 06:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.13Jul 25, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.72Jul 25, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.76Jul 25, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before GTA VI?$10.83Jul 25, 06:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?
$11.3K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 05:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 07:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.