Carefree-Commandment
0xa6289dd2fd7a17530dabd67249a3d3ceb63ffa47
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$42.91
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-3.69
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 16?
31 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$31.39
$0.19
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 16?
12 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$11.52
$0.02
- SAINT LOUIS BILLIKENS
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-6.5)
1969 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.0K
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 20?
31 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.43
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 20?
31 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.43
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 20?
31 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.43
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 20?
31 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.43
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 20?
31 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.43
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 20?
31 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.43
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 20?
31 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 16?$11.50May 16, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 16?$31.21May 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.88May 14, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 13?$11.53May 14, 07:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 13?$30.65May 14, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 13?$11.50May 13, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 13?$30.51May 13, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $115 on May 11?$10.31May 13, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 11?$30.29May 13, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $115 on May 11?$10.30May 11, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 11?$30.12May 11, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 8?$12.12May 11, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $100 on May 8?$30.53May 11, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 8?$12.10May 8, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $100 on May 8?$30.50May 8, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 6?$11.41May 8, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6?$30.83May 8, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 6?$11.40May 6, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6?$30.80May 6, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 29?$12.21May 6, 05:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $20.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 09:38 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 06:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.