Familiar-Drink
0xa6676646a16d8c7044ea2ac7e2b9ab09eb7384fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$9.1K
Total PnL
$-5.8K
Realised
$9.0K
Win rate
74%
47 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
14355 shares @ 24.0¢·now 25.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.7K
$205.42
- NO
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
2165 shares @ 43.6¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$819.19
- NO
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
988 shares @ 86.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$982.42
$127.65
- NO
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
842 shares @ 85.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$836.96
$117.67
- NO
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
732 shares @ 86.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$728.62
$95.04
- NO
Will Clavicular be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?
217 shares @ 97.2¢·now 97.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$210.39
$-0.06
- NO
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
208 shares @ 88.4¢·now 94.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$196.25
$12.38
- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
18310 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$137.33
$82.40
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
485 shares @ 22.6¢·now 24.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$120.77
$10.96
- NO
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
589 shares @ 39.1¢·now 12.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$70.64
$-159.59
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$30.89Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$5.76Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$32.07Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.09Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.81Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$35.93Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$27.74Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$6.74Jul 28, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$70.80Jul 28, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$294.19Jul 28, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$291.02Jul 28, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$294.19Jul 28, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$22.35Jul 28, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.32Jul 28, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$47.40Jul 28, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.4KJul 28, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.16Jul 28, 12:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 47 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
47 closed markets, 74% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $222.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 47 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.