Misguided-Pony
0xa6950c2588513658157df39a78c0e0aec7945b1e
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
48
Open notional
$25.75
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
357 shares @ 14.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.64
$-30.36
- YES
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
118 shares @ 17.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.35
$-16.65
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
34 shares @ 29.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.76
$-7.24
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2540 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- CHEDDY
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy
1702 shares @ 17.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-293.99
- YES
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- JAPAN
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela
946 shares @ 50.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-476.69
- DJOKOVIC
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic
886 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-124.00
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
701 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament?
607 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$188.68Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $55.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.