Misguided-Pony
0xa6950c2588513658157df39a78c0e0aec7945b1e
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
47
Open notional
$366.84
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
701 shares @ 7.1¢·now 9.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$65.59
$15.59
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
357 shares @ 14.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.79
$1.79
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
575 shares @ 8.7¢·now 8.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$51.44
$1.44
- YES
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
214 shares @ 28.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$48.21
$-11.79
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2540 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$44.44
$-5.55
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
72 shares @ 69.7¢·now 56.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$40.50
$-9.50
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
189 shares @ 15.9¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$31.98
$1.98
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
233 shares @ 8.6¢·now 8.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$20.35
$0.35
- YES
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
118 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.18
$-13.82
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
34 shares @ 29.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.52
$-4.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$15.36May 31, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$0.26May 31, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$0.20May 31, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$0.09May 31, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$0.09May 31, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$16.00May 31, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$12.00May 31, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$100.00May 31, 17:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$11.40May 31, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$71.92May 31, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$102.37May 31, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy$51.17May 31, 17:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 31, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 24, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $27.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 15:02 UTC
- Last active
- May 31, 19:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".