The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy
Probability
100¢
1h
+9.2pp
24h
+23.2pp
24h Vol
$41.4K
Liquidity
$13.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 23pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +9.2pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 3.2× turnover
$41.4k traded against $13.1k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 4h.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $13.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 3.6h
- 20:26SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 4h.
Price movement
+23.2pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: -29.5pp at May 29, 18:00 UTC (to 48¢).
Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
- 20:00 · +15.1pp → 100¢
- 17:00 · -13.5pp → 71¢
- May 30, 10:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 64¢
- May 30, 09:00 UTC · -16.5pp → 64¢
- May 30, 08:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 63¢
- May 30, 07:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 64¢
- May 30, 06:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 64¢
- May 29, 18:00 UTC · -29.5pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market will resolve in favor of “John” if Big John wins more holes than Cheddy in the 2026 Polymarket Open. This market will resolve in favor of “Cheddy” if Cheddy wins more holes than Cheddy in the 2026 Polymarket Open. This match will be played as an 18-hole head-to-head. No handicap strokes will be awarded to either player. Both players begin even at 0-0. The winner of each hole earns 1 point. The player who wins the most holes over 18 holes wins the match. In the event of a tie after 18 holes, the final hole is re-played until there is a winner. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50 If the 2026 Polymarket Open is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined which player finished better within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be the official stream from the official channels of Bigjohngolfs and Cheddy.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy"?
As of Sun, 31 May 2026 20:26:10 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +23.2pp in the last 24 hours, +9.2pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://kick.com/allheartgolfs.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/allheartgolfs. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$41.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $66.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $13.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.