Fatherly-Smog
0xa6b9c97e62895d22b81c011b03a642258e67b0c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$270.71
Total PnL
$-523.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?
365 shares @ 42.2¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$109.58
$-44.50
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?
75 shares @ 68.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$57.00
$6.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?
700 shares @ 30.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$52.49
$-157.34
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
400 shares @ 54.4¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.00
$-187.43
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
63 shares @ 32.0¢·now 22.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.25
$-5.75
- YES
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
25 shares @ 41.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.38
$-2.88
- YES
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
110 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
106 shares @ 37.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
77 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
42 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$25.58Jul 10, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15.29Jul 10, 02:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$52.99Jul 10, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$34.91Jul 8, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$52.20Jul 8, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$102.22Jul 3, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?$13.00Jul 2, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?$10.20Jul 2, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?$11.00Jul 2, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?$9.35Jul 2, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$40.04Jul 1, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$40.75Jul 1, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$50.52Jul 1, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?$0.00Jul 1, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?$0.00Jul 1, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?$0.00Jul 1, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$88.00Jul 1, 00:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jun 30, 08:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $44.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 02:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.