Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Probability
38¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$258.20
Liquidity
$32.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6028.0h
- 01:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6028h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 37¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 42¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 40¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 40¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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