Splendid-Digger
0xa6c896ed2bd0acbb8d5ca607c889c21bf4895685
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$29.19
Total PnL
$-24.81
Realised
$0.54
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
6 shares @ 77.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.48
$0.49
- YES
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.00
$1.65
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 77.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.07
$0.22
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
5 shares @ 70.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.58
$0.07
- NO
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
5 shares @ 73.7¢·now 69.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$3.46
$-0.22
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 68.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.33
$-0.07
- YES
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 66.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$3.17
$-0.13
- NO
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.09
$0.20
- ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
30 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
25 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$3.40Jun 18, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$5.00Jun 18, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?$3.35Jun 17, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$3.72Jun 17, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$5.18Jun 16, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4.99Jun 15, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?$4.25Jun 15, 10:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$1.95Jun 15, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$1.95Jun 14, 22:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$2.19Jun 14, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$3.08Jun 14, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?$3.30Jun 14, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$4.83Jun 14, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4.81Jun 14, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.30Jun 14, 05:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$7.92Jun 14, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$1.30Jun 13, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$1.40Jun 13, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$4.19Jun 13, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4.94Jun 12, 19:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 02:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 09:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.