Physical-Beggar
0xa6dcc89a31d7d68c961969eed282690ed41912ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$814.81
Total PnL
$-91.25
Realised
$-30.43
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?
200 shares @ 95.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$187.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
200 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$179.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 70.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$138.98
$-1.02
- NO
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 0.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$127.00
$127.00
- YES
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?
70 shares @ 90.6¢·now 79.8¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$55.86
$-7.59
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$44.25
$0.23
- YES
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
106 shares @ 54.3¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$43.27
$-14.07
- YES
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
122 shares @ 35.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2027$14.63
$-28.05
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?
188 shares @ 7.9¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$10.90
$-3.95
- YES
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027?
20 shares @ 62.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$10.50
$-1.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$129.84Jun 24, 01:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$7.38Jun 24, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?$14.85Jun 24, 00:32 UTC
- REWARD$1.94Jun 24, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$237.01Jun 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$60.93Jun 23, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$2.00Jun 23, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$1.20Jun 23, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$194.02Jun 23, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$140.01Jun 23, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23?$65.83Jun 23, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brayden Burries be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft?$94.99Jun 23, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brayden Burries be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft?$94.01Jun 23, 22:32 UTC
- REWARD$136.27Jun 23, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darius Acuff Jr. be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft?$0.03Jun 23, 21:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darius Acuff Jr. be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft?$0.21Jun 23, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karim López be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft?$0.40Jun 23, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$32.31Jun 23, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kingston Flemings be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft?$1.01Jun 23, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Labaron Philon be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft?$0.21Jun 23, 20:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $41.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 14:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 01:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.