Unwieldy-Fax
0xa6defe8935edff7c8592f664246c10453e4a9ee7
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-383.87
Realised
$1.85
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on July 1 at 5PM ET?
909 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?
727 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 16?
350 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
250 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-23.75
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 16?
228 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on July 2 at 5PM ET?
200 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
125 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on July 2 at 5PM ET?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance AND England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? AND Will England win on 2026-07-15?$8.00Jul 15, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-14?$1.83Jul 14, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-14?$5.00Jul 14, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-14?$5.00Jul 14, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-14?$8.67Jul 14, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-14?$7.00Jul 14, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?$23.75Jul 14, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-14?$25.00Jul 14, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$103.97Jun 2, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$0.00Apr 22, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$19.22Apr 22, 21:18 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.56Apr 22, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$0.00Apr 21, 22:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$10.00Apr 21, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$4.80Apr 21, 22:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$4.05Apr 21, 22:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$3.13Apr 21, 22:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$2.40Apr 21, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$6.10Apr 21, 22:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $8.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 22:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 15:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.