Aged-Pawnshop
0xa6e4d6da7e3ba05550437db4475eacb1cc21369f
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-10.9K
Realised
$-5.1K
Win rate
22%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-11 House seat?
1442 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.3K
$7.21
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?
512 shares @ 51.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$204.69
$-56.29
- NO
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
156 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.9¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$138.63
$-0.16
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-11 House seat?
1442 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$93.73
$-7.21
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?
1215 shares @ 19.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$78.96
$-151.84
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
419 shares @ 22.8¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.60
$-60.04
- YES
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June?
350 shares @ 37.0¢·now 8.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$29.41
$-100.08
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?
1710 shares @ 16.5¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$27.36
$-254.56
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?
283 shares @ 14.0¢·now 6.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$17.24
$-22.33
- YES
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June?
300 shares @ 25.5¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$12.00
$-64.49
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$130.51Jun 19, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NJ-11 House seat?$1.3KJun 19, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NJ-11 House seat?$104.69Jun 19, 14:26 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by June 8?$250.00Jun 12, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June?$132.75Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June?$78.77Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$37.94Jun 9, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$0.34Jun 9, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$55.68Jun 8, 11:41 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$104.39Jun 8, 11:41 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$250.54Jun 8, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$114.00Jun 8, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$105.88Jun 8, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$32.42Jun 8, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$503.08Jun 8, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$309.46Jun 8, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$57.99Jun 8, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by June 8?$29.46Jun 7, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 8?$10.50Jun 7, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$34.00Jun 7, 14:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
37 closed markets, 22% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $93.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 02:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 15:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.