Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$13.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $13.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
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AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
Recent Trades
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).