Conventional-Omnivore
0xa6f09450c7f034fa5c3f2e0a8d4e57e2561ff943
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$339.86
Total PnL
$-291.77
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
160 shares @ 62.6¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$157.25
$57.25
- YES
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
798 shares @ 25.7¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.83
$-141.41
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
70 shares @ 71.6¢·now 74.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$51.78
$1.78
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
100 shares @ 17.5¢·now 23.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$23.60
$6.10
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
500 shares @ 8.3¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.25
$-24.25
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
100 shares @ 41.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.50
$-30.50
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.05
$-30.95
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
100 shares @ 29.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.35
$-22.65
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
100 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.25
$-7.15
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?
287 shares @ 17.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$8.50Jul 24, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$9.00Jul 24, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$29.00Jul 24, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$41.00Jul 23, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$40.00Jul 23, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$2.66Jul 23, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$0.47Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$1.48Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$0.46Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$1.08Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$1.25Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$50.57Jul 22, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?$54.95Jul 14, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?$50.00Jul 13, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?$51.65Jul 13, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$50.90Jul 12, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$50.54Jul 7, 13:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$38.46Jul 5, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?$131.41Jul 5, 10:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $44.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 08:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 16:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.