Overlooked-Denim
0xa7736d45e37fbeb1282283730dc5cad2b1be12f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$29.95
Total PnL
$-42.00
Realised
$-5.10
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
98 shares @ 17.2¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.38
$-5.42
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
7 shares @ 48.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.26
$3.71
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
32 shares @ 20.1¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.47
$-0.02
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
23 shares @ 33.8¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.42
$-3.30
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?
20 shares @ 29.6¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.29
$-5.62
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?
15 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.13
$-1.24
- YES
Will SpaceX have less than 7 launches in January?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
25 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.34
- YES
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
25 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.59
- YES
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
20 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.16
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.