Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.7pp
24h Vol
$142.41
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5975.4h
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: +3.3pp at 00:00 (to 5¢).
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ETLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.