Windy-Monotheism
0xa7a5edd79c0332978e227c092af6dbc82f35c417
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
120
Open notional
$272.21
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$298.12
Win rate
11%
114 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 120- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
964 shares @ 32.7¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$139.80
$-175.83
- YES
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
313 shares @ 32.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$76.56
$-23.44
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
302 shares @ 38.4¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.85
$-60.15
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
800 shares @ 20.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-164.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
652 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.00
$-115.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
264 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-39.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
231 shares @ 18.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-43.84
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
174 shares @ 43.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-75.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$5.27Aug 13, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$10.87Aug 13, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$5.17Aug 13, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$5.19Aug 13, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$136.46Aug 13, 05:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$311.77Aug 13, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$25.24Aug 13, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$25.21Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$101.05Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$24.99Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$100.40Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$24.09Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$9.20Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$11.50Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$55.20Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$25.07Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$10.08Aug 13, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$329.70Aug 13, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$100.50Aug 13, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$100.63Aug 13, 05:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 114 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
114 closed markets, 11% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $42.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 03:58 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 06:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 114 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.