Ornery-Slapstick
0xa821bde7f81c2f3648876ae76f6764ef265efc33
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$9.26
Total PnL
$-634.43
Realised
$17.85
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
33 shares @ 9.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.17
$1.17
- YES
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
16 shares @ 25.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.16
$-1.84
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 24.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.92
$-3.08
- YES
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
34 shares @ 5.8¢·now 2.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.86
$-1.14
- YES
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
18 shares @ 5.5¢·now 1.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.32
$-0.68
- YES
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
800 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 13?
330 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
286 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?
276 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$39.22Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.98Jul 4, 19:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $3.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.