0xa832e7afb91c8083d42474faaf05f9abfaf8abf8
0xa832e7afb91c8083d42474faaf05f9abfaf8abf8
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$3.7K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$564.65
Win rate
79%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
1090 shares @ 80.8¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$910.16
$29.57
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
1100 shares @ 77.3¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$819.50
$-30.95
- NO
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?
480 shares @ 77.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$388.59
$19.23
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
430 shares @ 88.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$380.98
$-0.34
- NO
Andrii Sybiha appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs by July 31?
381 shares @ 96.5¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$363.59
$-3.79
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
308 shares @ 67.8¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$207.90
$-0.98
- NO
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?
174 shares @ 86.5¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$167.91
$17.32
- NO
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31?
177 shares @ 92.2¢·now 91.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$162.58
$-0.75
- YES
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
174 shares @ 65.6¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$128.70
$14.62
- NO
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?
160 shares @ 78.6¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$121.60
$-4.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by July 25?$15.40Jul 22, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?$207.50Jul 22, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?$16.55Jul 22, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrii Sybiha appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs by July 31?$28.88Jul 22, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$3.92Jul 22, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$7.12Jul 22, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$354.06Jul 22, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$358.34Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$24.54Jul 22, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLAndrii Sybiha appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs by July 31?$47.50Jul 22, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$1.79Jul 22, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$8.16Jul 22, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$104.13Jul 22, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?$4.98Jul 22, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$13.35Jul 22, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$0.43Jul 22, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$48.96Jul 22, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$118.50Jul 22, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$155.04Jul 22, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$104.00Jul 22, 07:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $80.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 07:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 13:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.