Frivolous-Currency
0xa8480e34ca03aebe71e300065ae575fa583d95d0
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$11.52
Total PnL
$-166.00
Realised
$-1.08
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 95m?
25 shares @ 7.9¢·now 19.1¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$4.85
$2.85
- YES
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?
8 shares @ 26.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of June 29 2026?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$1.69
$0.69
- YES
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 95m?
48 shares @ 4.2¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.98
$-1.02
- YES
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
83 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.87
$-0.13
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
36 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.52
$-0.48
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.43
$-0.57
- NO
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 2.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.17
$-0.83
- NO
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?
6 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.05
$-0.95
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
567 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of June 29 2026?$1.03Jul 1, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?$2.00Jul 1, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 95m?$2.00Jul 1, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 95m?$2.00Jul 1, 11:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?$11.11Jul 1, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?$106.38Jun 30, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?$7.10Jun 21, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$6.53Jun 21, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?$90.40Jun 18, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?$100.24Jun 18, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?$1.04Jun 18, 01:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$0.02Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$0.53Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$0.53Jun 14, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$0.78Jun 14, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$0.78Jun 14, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?$10.35Jun 12, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?$5.17Jun 12, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jun 12, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$5.00Jun 12, 23:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $34.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 21:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 11:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.