Will Trump attend NATO Summit?
Probability
63¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$260.01
Liquidity
$3.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 63¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1763h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1762.8h
- 13:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1763h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:08PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 64¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 62¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 62¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 62¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 62¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 62¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 63¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 64¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 65¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 61¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 62¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 63¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 64¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends the NATO Summit event scheduled for July 7, 2026 – July 8, 2026 in Ankara, Türkiye. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the NATO Summit is defined as being in physical attendance in the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).