Fortunate-Disappointment
0xa868e59a21a4c304c2573735fe87e19dc11f2038
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$12.4K
Total PnL
$96.61
Realised
$80.28
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14?
10001 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$10.0K
$5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 14?
2094 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$2.1K
$1.05
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?
263 shares @ 95.7¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$256.60
$5.42
- NO
ByteDance IPO before 2027?
84 shares @ 87.2¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$77.88
$4.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14?$10.0KJun 13, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 14?$2.1KJun 13, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 14?$11.99Jun 13, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$1.00Jun 13, 06:08 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.91Jun 13, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?$9.9KJun 12, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?$16.3KJun 12, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?$59.88Jun 12, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?$4.0KJun 12, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?$4.8KJun 12, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?$509.02Jun 12, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$8.68Jun 12, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$8.59Jun 12, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$8.3KJun 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$2.20Jun 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$990.00Jun 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$24.15Jun 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$2.52Jun 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$13.37Jun 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$14.70Jun 12, 16:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$25.9K
Trades
3
Buy share
61%
Window
May 19, 08:20 UTC → May 23, 01:52 UTC
- BUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?$8.1K@100¢May 23, 01:52 UTC
- SELLBitcoin Up or Down on May 18?$10.2K@100¢May 20, 01:23 UTC
- BUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$7.6K@100¢May 19, 08:11 UTC
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$25.9K
3 trades
Buy share
61%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?
$10.2K · 39% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $589.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 16:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 12:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.