OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Probability

70¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$426.72

Liquidity

$13.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-12.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:37
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 70¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $13.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5981.3h

    LOW
  • 18:39Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 70¢.

Biggest hourly move: -8.5pp at 06:00 (to 70¢).

Show all 23 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:37 · -3.5pp → 70¢
  • 17:00 · -3.0pp → 71¢
  • 15:00 · -8.0pp → 70¢
  • 14:00 · -8.0pp → 70¢
  • 12:00 · -8.0pp → 70¢
  • 11:00 · -7.0pp → 70¢
  • 09:00 · -7.5pp → 70¢
  • 08:00 · -7.0pp → 70¢
  • 06:00 · -8.5pp → 70¢
  • 05:00 · -8.0pp → 70¢
  • 03:00 · -5.5pp → 71¢
  • 02:00 · -3.0pp → 71¢
  • 00:00 · -3.0pp → 71¢
  • 23:00 · -3.5pp → 71¢
  • 1d ago · -3.0pp → 73¢
  • 1d ago · -3.5pp → 73¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 73¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 75¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 76¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 76¢
  • 2d ago · -7.5pp → 75¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 79¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 79¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
BloombergNews consensusextracted · medium
bloomberg.com
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket