Lighthearted-Reality
0xa899127cd26cb30ac58dae7ebadcc49000f9294b
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$1.29
Total PnL
$-3.91
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.29
$-0.01
- YES
Will Meitu- Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
1300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election?
650 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Etuate Lavulavu be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?
60 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?$1.30Jul 21, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?$5.61Jul 1, 10:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?$40.74Jul 1, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?$2.42Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?$5.60Jul 1, 00:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?$3.42Jun 30, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.80Jun 30, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?$40.70Jun 30, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?$3.40Jun 26, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.80Jun 5, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?$2.40Jun 5, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$3.02Jun 1, 02:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.01Jun 1, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$2.00May 31, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?$3.01May 31, 21:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$2.00May 30, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?$5.02May 30, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?$2.01May 30, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?$3.02May 29, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMSolstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?$27.34May 26, 22:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $8.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 08:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 15:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.