Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$209.61
Liquidity
$6.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-17.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 1¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 854h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $6.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 853.9h
- 16:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 854h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:04PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 1¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 1¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 2¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).