0xa8a0f8fb7a3ca4ef45d9c901a8cf343ba6e0d5a0
0xa8a0f8fb7a3ca4ef45d9c901a8cf343ba6e0d5a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$767.31
Total PnL
$-128.39
Realised
$-9.97
Win rate
38%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
621 shares @ 38.4¢·now 38.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$235.69
$-2.79
- NO
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
93 shares @ 97.6¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$89.63
$-1.09
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
118 shares @ 53.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$74.67
$12.35
- NO
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
76 shares @ 73.3¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.41
$-0.58
- NO
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
74 shares @ 43.2¢·now 50.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.03
$5.02
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
37 shares @ 78.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.80
$1.68
- NO
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?
31 shares @ 78.2¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.32
$5.84
- NO
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
29 shares @ 68.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$27.44
$7.80
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
171 shares @ 16.3¢·now 15.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$26.28
$-1.53
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
26 shares @ 78.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.41
$0.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$41.88Jun 26, 00:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 26, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$48.84Jun 25, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$8.31Jun 25, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?$5.70Jun 25, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$2.49Jun 25, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$6.94Jun 25, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$33.55Jun 25, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$12.60Jun 25, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$2.71Jun 25, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$244.36Jun 25, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$8.86Jun 25, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$73.47Jun 25, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$118.74Jun 25, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$7.64Jun 25, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$5.24Jun 25, 18:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$34.01Jun 25, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$8.97Jun 25, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.39Jun 25, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.06Jun 25, 12:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $23.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 23:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 00:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.